Stormy Weather . . .

Well, this is exciting. I was going to leave Montauk tomorrow morning. The plan was to take a very small boat into a very big ocean. The problem is the weather. The rain is not a big deal. Of course, lightning is no fun. The real issue is the wind. In the ocean "a Southwest wind 14 to 20 mph" is a real problem when you are attempting to paddle West along the Southern coast of  Long Island for 40 miles. Catch my drift. I'm crazy not stupid. 

This is the NOAA weather forecast for Wednesday

• 09/05/12Scattered showers and thunderstorms before 10am, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm between 10am and 4pm, then scattered showers and thunderstorms after 4pm. Patchy fog before 8am. Otherwise, cloudy, with a high near 77. Breezy, with a southwest wind 14 to 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
• 09/0512 NightA chance of showers and thunderstorms before 2am, then a slight chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 69. Southwest wind 8 to 13 mph becoming light west after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
So, I could leave on Thursday . . . 

• 
  09/06/12A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 80. North wind around 6 mph becoming southwest in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
• 09/06/12NightPartly cloudy, with a low around 69.

Yeah, that looks better. North wind at 6 would be quite nice.
Now, for my other problem. . .
Leslie!
This on Leslie from http://www.weather.com

The season's 12th named storm, "Leslie" may become a hurricane in the open waters of the Atlantic Ocean.  Let's address the two main questions with Leslie's future as best as we can.

Projected Path

1.  Bermuda Threat?

Leslie passed north of the Leeward Islands over the weekend and is now moving very slowly between those islands and Bermuda.

To elaborate, steering currents in the upper levels of the atmosphere have relaxed to the point that Leslie may stall or creep only very slowly toward the north in the direction of Bermuda the next several days.

Leslie will also be experiencing varying degrees of wind shear over the next few days, which could limit its ability to intensify in the short term.

Wind shear is forecast to relax during the second half of the week and Leslie may be a hurricane by the time it approaches Bermuda this weekend. How much impact Leslie has on Bermuda will depend on the exact track and intensity of the system this coming weekend.

Leslie's East Coast Future?

2.  East Coast/Canadian Maritime Threat?

It's still too soon to completely write-off the possibility of Leslie directly impacting the Northeast U.S. coast.  

To diagnose whether a tropical cyclone poses a U.S. threat, we look to the aforementioned upper-level wind flow, or "steering pattern."

Generally speaking, for a tropical cyclone north of the Caribbean Sea, you need strong upper-level high pressure expansive in a west-to-east manner across the Atlantic that would force the cyclone toward the west, instead of curling out into open waters toward the northwest, then north. 

In this case, instead of an upper-level ridge, the polar jet stream will cut across the northern tier of states, extending into the North Atlantic Ocean late in the week.

If this flow regime pans out as currently forecast...this would seal off the Northeast U.S. coast from Leslie, turning the cyclone toward the northeast or east and away from the Eastern Seaboard.

Regardless...due to Leslie's initial stalled state and slow movement, it will generate high surf and rip currents along parts of the East Coast throughout the week ahead.

(MORE: Rip current safety) 

Check back with The Weather Channel and weather.com for the latest on Leslie.

It don't look good . . .